Grains Report 03/22/19

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices closed higher. The export sales report was not strong, but the US Dollar was weaker and there are hopes for improved export sales volumes in the short-term. There are also some worries about production because of all of the excessive moisture in the Midwest and Great Plains. The market is keeping an eye on the flooding seen in the western Midwest, but the areas affected are not big Winter Wheat areas. There are also concerns about production for the coming year due to bad planting conditions in the Fall and the potential for Winter kill from the extreme cold seen in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains after the first of the year. Prices are cheap enough now that some cattle producers in the central and southern Great Plains might use the Wheat area for grazing instead of for cash crops. Prices are very high in the region right now for feed, so grazing the Wheat might make more economic sense. Minneapolis prices have been holding better as the market waits for Spring to arrive. The big Winter storm in the Dakotas and other areas last week has given way to improving weather this week. The region will need a lot of good weather before planting can begin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get drier weather, but storms are expected today. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 499 and 536 May. Support is at 457, 453, and 447 May, with resistance at 475, 480, and 490 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 433, 427, and 418 May, with resistance at 448, 453, and 458 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 576 and 594 May. Support is at 565, 562, and 558 May, and resistance is at 577, 581, and 584 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher and made new highs for the move as the weekly export sales report was strong once again. Speculators might have been the best buyers and would have been covering more short positions. Planting conditions are improving this week near the Gulf Coast and in the Delta. All areas have seen some extreme precipitation and mostly cool to cold temperatures for the last month. More areas in Texas and Louisiana have been planted, and areas near Houston are planting now. The planting of the southern crop will be on time or only slightly delayed if favorable weather continues. It is still too wet and cold for work to get done in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, but farmers will be working on field preparations as soon as possible. Farmers have mostly sold the Rice in the south, but there is still a lot to sell in Arkansas and into Missouri and Mississippi. Only small sales are being reported. US export demand overall has been positive for the market. The US has Rice to sell, but the Rice is getting sold and exported. Domestic demand has been moderate.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather, but showers are possible later next week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1150 May. Support is at 1097, 1086, and 1078 May, with resistance at 1116, 1122, and 1125 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on good weekly export sales and increasing concerns about Corn production in the coming year and the fate of Corn in storage located in the flooded areas. US representatives will be in China next week and then Chinese representatives will come to the US the following week as both sides work hard on the final points for a trade agreement. Ideas are that China would buy some significant amounts of Corn as they would be committing to buy a huge amount of US agricultural goods. They could also buy a lot of Ethanol and DDG. South American weather is generally good as more showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. US farmers are still trying to decide on their planting mix this year. Corn planting is active in areas near the Gulf Coast, but fieldwork in many cases was delayed by excessive rains in the past few weeks. Losses to stored field crops are expected to be very big in the eastern half of Nebraska and the western half of Iowa this year due to the flooding now being reported in both areas. Losses to livestock and crops could be over $1 billion in Nebraska. Corn stored in elevators in flooded areas is most likely lost and will have to be destroyed.
Overnight News: China bought 300,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 379 May. Support is at 372, 368, and 366 May, and resistance is at 380, 383, and 386 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 287 May. Support is at 273, 270, and 265 May, and resistance is at 280, 282, and 285 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little higher. The weekly export sales report was bad. The US government says it still expects to have a trade agreement with China, with a signing ceremony by the end of April. US representatives will travel to China for meetings, and the Chinese will come to the US the following week for more meetings in a push to get everything done. Brazil is still very active with its harvest and should continue to show increased offers and very competitive prices. The harvest pace is still good overall. Argentina also looks to export this year as crops there are much better. Ideas are that the US export sales pace will fall seasonally in the near term. The weather in the US is very cold in the north and very wet in the south. A major storm moved through the Great Plains and Midwest last week and brought extreme amounts of snow and rain and wind. Flooding is widespread in Nebraska and Iowa and is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota and Wisconsin as the snows there melt. Losses to grain and livestock could be at least $1 billion in Nebraska alone. Much calmer weather is expected for the next week as it should be dry and turn warmer. An extended dry period is needed as more flooding will be noted once the Dakotas and Minnesota start to turn warmer. However, light rains are forecast for this weekend and more significant precipitation is possible by the end of next week. Some producers will switch from Corn to Soybeans this year if planting is delayed enough.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 926 and 946 May. Support is at 906, 899, and 892 May, and resistance is at 913, 924, and 930 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 321.00 May. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 318.00, 320.00, and 321.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2870 and 2740 May. Support is at 2890, 2870, and 2830 May, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly higher in sympathy with Chicago and weakness in the Canadian Dollar. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and a lack of demand from China. Commercials were noted buyers yesterday. Road bans are in effect in the Prairies due to soft soils. Palm Oil was higher on the outside markets and chart related buying. The market ignored export weakness. There is talk that February production will be stronger than expected. Short term trends remain are turning up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 and 491.00 May. Support is at 463.00, 459.00, and 457.00 March, with resistance at 470.00, 474.00, and 480.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2210 May. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 May, with resistance at 2190, 2220, and 2270 May.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 22
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended March 17, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3122.1 1001.9 269.9 326.6 61.3 1222.2 388.6 445.5 7583.9
Week Ago 2944.2 977.9 265.9 365.1 57.2 1147.2 327.5 280.6 7073.2
Year Ago 3044.9 664.5 223.3 431.8 69.5 1488.8 304.2 210.6 7067.1
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 488.5 134.6 59.4 56.4 7.9 305.5 76.8 9.9 1172.9
Week Ago 448.8 125.3 47.6 62.9 9.1 314.6 51.7 12.4 1117.0
To Date 14043.3 2731.6 1498.9 2493.9 236.4 11901.1 2271.5 362.6 38331.5
Year Ago 11615.1 2583.5 1489.4 2143.6 278.0 12613.2 1785.4 315.1 35786.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 273.3 131.2 0.1 49.6 1.7 172.1 23.6 15.0 684.5
Week Ago 212.8 73.5 18.4 41.3 0.5 92.4 15.8 45.4 521.6
To Date 12830.5 2448.1 301.1 1512.1 72.9 6426.7 1225.3 862.4 30984.8
Year Ago 10701.4 2817.4 122.8 1186.5 144.6 6981.5 1121.1 595.4 28497.5
EXPORTS
This Week 455.9 104.3 45.8 62.7 1.2 148.7 1.4 0.0 838.1
Week Ago 207.8 86.0 16.9 49.1 0.9 81.8 36.2 30.8 518.5
To Date 11389.5 2207.6 1011.7 1636.8 148.0 6033.8 1277.2 936.2 28487.1
Year Ago 9667.1 2579.1 1037.7 1280.5 200.5 6597.7 1206.0 419.5 26402.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 78.0 4.3 5.7 18.4 1.4 167.5 4.4 17.1 324.8
Week Ago 39.8 12.5 5.6 21.5 0.5 134.8 3.9 17.0 265.6
To Date 2570.3 214.9 184.2 705.1 36.0 5794.3 134.6 753.8 12062.2
Year Ago 2890.2 448.9 163.2 760.8 33.7 5790.8 147.4 393.8 12406.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light precipitation is possible on Sunday and rain is possible later next week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 59 May 160 May 86 May 35 May Price
April 57 May 80 May 35 May
May 55 May 80 May 32 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
March
April 39 May -15 May
May 47 May -17 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 21
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 448.70 up 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 481.20 up 3.50
2 Can 468.20 up 3.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 493.20 up 3.50
2 Can 480.20 up 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 522.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 537.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 565.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 527.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 542.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 550.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 570.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 545.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 472.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,020 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 153 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0670)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,692 lots, or 3.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,375 3,383 3,363 3,377 3,372 3,374 2 99,446 158,402
Jul-19 3,461 3,461 3,432 3,432 3,450 3,449 -1 10 218
Sep-19 3,458 3,468 3,452 3,462 3,458 3,460 2 12,852 48,694
Nov-19 – – – 3,410 3,410 3,410 0 0 16
Jan-20 3,390 3,396 3,385 3,388 3,387 3,389 2 2,384 27,048
Mar-20 – – – 3,389 3,389 3,389 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 868,728 lots, or 15.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,820 1,821 1,810 1,816 1,826 1,815 -11 417,168 988,024
Jul-19 1,843 1,843 1,828 1,834 1,845 1,833 -12 36,804 191,182
Sep-19 1,850 1,852 1,838 1,842 1,860 1,844 -16 374,166 937,176
Nov-19 1,880 1,882 1,871 1,872 1,891 1,877 -14 256 2,436
Jan-20 1,915 1,916 1,899 1,904 1,922 1,907 -15 40,312 121,056
Mar-20 1,934 1,934 1,920 1,923 1,933 1,925 -8 22 48
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,621,552 lots, or 41.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,542 2,563 2,531 2,556 2,537 2,548 11 1,125,378 1,565,358
Jul-19 2,565 2,578 2,552 2,569 2,558 2,561 3 42,094 165,826
Aug-19 2,606 2,610 2,606 2,610 2,591 2,608 17 8 226
Sep-19 2,606 2,619 2,594 2,616 2,599 2,610 11 435,572 1,252,556
Nov-19 2,629 2,642 2,619 2,640 2,622 2,634 12 176 3,362
Dec-19 2,678 2,678 2,678 2,678 2,681 2,678 -3 2 234
Jan-20 2,675 2,690 2,668 2,688 2,673 2,681 8 18,228 106,522
Mar-20 2,682 2,696 2,678 2,688 2,682 2,688 6 94 172
Palm Oil
Turnover: 393,930 lots, or 17.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-19 – – – 4,600 4,600 4,600 0 0 2
May-19 4,492 4,496 4,464 4,466 4,488 4,474 -14 309,314 553,288
Jun-19 4,760 4,816 4,702 4,702 4,772 4,772 0 10 54
Jul-19 – – – 4,806 4,806 4,806 0 0 28
Aug-19 – – – 4,728 4,728 4,728 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,766 4,766 4,740 4,752 4,758 4,754 -4 80,194 254,162
Oct-19 – – – 4,766 4,766 4,766 0 0 6
Nov-19 – – – 4,880 4,884 4,880 -4 0 16
Dec-19 4,964 4,964 4,964 4,964 4,986 4,964 -22 20 60
Jan-20 4,822 4,826 4,808 4,822 4,824 4,818 -6 4,392 54,428
Feb-20 – – – 4,872 4,878 4,872 -6 0 0
Mar-20 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 512,360 lots, or 28.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,546 5,552 5,474 5,498 5,550 5,506 -44 355,432 517,058
Jul-19 – – – 5,556 5,556 5,556 0 0 12
Aug-19 – – – 5,596 5,596 5,596 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,704 5,710 5,646 5,666 5,708 5,674 -34 152,246 402,050
Nov-19 – – – 5,800 5,834 5,800 -34 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,852 5,886 5,852 -34 0 10
Jan-20 5,826 5,826 5,764 5,788 5,818 5,790 -28 4,682 42,694
Mar-20 – – – 5,858 5,858 5,858 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.