Stock Index Futures Likely to Recover from Early Pressure

March 22, 2019


Stock index futures fell due to a series of weak economic reports in the euro zone. Euro zone purchasing managers indexes came in below expectations, dragged down by weak performances in Germany and France.

The 8:45 central time U.S. March PMI Composite FLASH is expected to be 55.2.

The 9:00 February existing home sales report is anticipated to show 5.1 million and the 9:00 January wholesale trade report is estimated to be up .1%.

I expect at least a partial recovery for stock index futures from the current lower levels.

Stock index futures have moved higher since late last year in spite the reduced rate of global economic expansion.

I believe investors are correctly anticipating easier credit conditions from the worlds central banks are and will continue to be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures.


The U.S. dollar advanced and the euro currency fell following a round of disappointing economic data in the euro zone.

The euro zone manufacturing preliminary purchasing managers index fell to 51.3 in March from 51.9 in February, which was a worse drop than expected. In Germany, the euro zones largest economy, the manufacturing PMI for March was 44.7, which was weaker than expected.

The British pound advanced on news that late Thursday, European Union leaders allowed U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone the Brexit deadline beyond next week.

The Canadian dollar is lower on news that Canadian retail sales fell for a third consecutive month in January. Statistics Canada said retail sales decreased 0.3% in January from the previous month. Market expectations were for a 0.4% increase.

However, inflation in Canada rose in February at a slightly faster than expected rate. Canada's consumer price index climbed 1.5% on a year over year basis in February, which is up from a 1.4% gain in the previous month. Market expectations were for a 1.4% increase in February.


Global bond markets rallied, sending yields lower, as a result of a series of weaker than expected euro zone data prompted investors to move into the perceived safety of government paper.

The yield for the 10 year German government bond fell 4.7 basis points to negative 0.01%, which is its lowest in almost two and a half years. In addition, the 10 year Japanese government bond yield also fell to negative 0.07%, which is its lowest level since November 2016.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank PresidentRaphael Bostic at 8:30 and Chicago Federal Reserve Bank PresidentCharles Evans at 8:45.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 54% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 46% chance for a 25 basis point or more decline in the fed funds rate in 2019.


June 19S&P 500

Support 2837.00 Resistance 2868.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 95.620 Resistance 96.350

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.13570 Resistance 1.14810

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .90710 Resistance .91360

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74520 Resistance .75150

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .7091 Resistance .7139

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 147^0 Resistance 148^12

April 19Gold

Support 1304.0 Resistance 1318.0

May 19Copper

Support 2.8600 Resistance 2.9250

May 19 Crude Oil

Support 58.91 Resistance 60.55

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